Hello and welcome to my blog! As part of my undergraduate module in 'Global Environmental Change', I will be blogging weekly about the latest research, important findings and my own opinions on environmental change issues over the course of the next three months.
I have chosen to blog about possible unexpected outcomes of global environmental change: the thresholds, boundaries and targets within both the physical system and the societal dimension. I aim to explore a wide range of topics from climatic thresholds/tipping points to 'dangerous climate change' and the possible onset of the Anthropocene as a new geologic epoch resulting from anthropogenic impacts.
Surprises!
Global environmental change is highly complex and is weaved intricately within a series of interconnected systems (ocean, terrestrial, atmosphere). Such complexity means that unexpected 'surprises' are likely to exist with increasing anthropogenic forcing (Schiender, 2004). Epitomized by dramatized movies linking climate change with global catastrophe, these scientifically probable and increasingly likely non-linear responses of the climate system have often made viral rounds on social media and news outlet with exaggerated headlines. As a physical geographer, I actively seek for the truth and scientific evidence within it. However, bombarded with such headlines, while some may rightly regard it as exaggerated truth, some may reject/ignore such theories or worse, outright reject the notion of climate change, finding the consequences unbelievable or unpalatable. It is therefore with this in mind that I wish to address the following in this blog:
1) How did tipping points enter mainstream scientific research and public discourse?
2) Are there examples of scientifically recognized critical thresholds caused by anthropogenic induced climate change? How are thresholds determined?
3) Have the earth system experienced tipping points before in history?
4) How do scientists define the exact time when critical thresholds are surpassed and tipping points occur? Have certain critical thresholds already been surpassed?
5) How did/can the notion of tipping points/thresholds be applied to societal and policy terms?
Any desire for effective mitigation policies and strategies must 1) take into account unexpected consequences leading to tipping points and 2) identify current trajectory and quantify the timing and extent at which a certain threshold was or will be surpassed. This idea was championed by the 'Planetary Boundaries' based upon thresholds and the decreasing resemblance with Holocene-like system states (Steffen et.al. 2015b). The quantification of thresholds and current status of anthropogenic influence allows society to adapt, mitigate and avoid any impending boundaries. As the concept is rather general and over-arching, I will instead focus on specific tipping points on both global and sub-continental scales in this blog.
1) How did tipping points enter mainstream scientific research and public discourse?
2) Are there examples of scientifically recognized critical thresholds caused by anthropogenic induced climate change? How are thresholds determined?
3) Have the earth system experienced tipping points before in history?
4) How do scientists define the exact time when critical thresholds are surpassed and tipping points occur? Have certain critical thresholds already been surpassed?
5) How did/can the notion of tipping points/thresholds be applied to societal and policy terms?
 |
| Source |
Any desire for effective mitigation policies and strategies must 1) take into account unexpected consequences leading to tipping points and 2) identify current trajectory and quantify the timing and extent at which a certain threshold was or will be surpassed. This idea was championed by the 'Planetary Boundaries' based upon thresholds and the decreasing resemblance with Holocene-like system states (Steffen et.al. 2015b). The quantification of thresholds and current status of anthropogenic influence allows society to adapt, mitigate and avoid any impending boundaries. As the concept is rather general and over-arching, I will instead focus on specific tipping points on both global and sub-continental scales in this blog.
 |
| Source |
The Anthropocene - The ultimate threshold
Global environmental change and its associated impacts will be the single most important challenge for generations to come. From global warming and rising sea levels to marine pollution and invasional meltdown, humans have had an immense impact on complex natural systems and processes. Recognising humans as a major geological and morphological force, Crutzen and Stoermer (2000) proposed 'Anthropocene' as a new geological epoch succeeding the Holocene. If formally ratified, the timing and exact beginning of the Anthropocene would clearly mark the single most significant threshold from which the influence of humans would have set Earth on an irreversible trajectory away from natural system behaviour.
What do you think the impact of acknowledging the onset of Anthropocene will have for countries like the US in terms of their energy and environmental policies?
ReplyDeleteHi Dan! Thanks for commenting!
DeleteAcknowledging the onset of the Anthropocene would imply that humans have officially caused irreversible changes to the earth system and may have already crossed certain climatic thresholds. You're right in linking Anthropocene with environmental policies as ratifying the Anthropocene would likely lead to heightened political action. This links to my other post on societal tipping points where possible exponential growth innovation in environmental technology would represent a societal tipping point in climate change solutions.